Wednesday, October 8, 2008

The Lens of Past


Dear Readers,

We see today’s customers, today’s products and services, today’s economics and today’s competition. We project today’s conditions forward. This then, unknowingly, becomes our expected future. Our future has today’s customers, products and services, economics, and competition at its core. The future is an extrapolation of recent trends. When we look through the lens of the past it is as though we are driving the car focusing on the rear-view mirror. This view permeates management thinking and business processes in areas such as budgeting and forecasting, performance and career management and product development. We know who we are and we project that forward into the future.
Carly Fiorina’s merging of HP with Compaq, using today’s products, customers and business model to grow the company, is a classic example of operating a business looking through the lens of the past.
When operating in times of disruptive change … there is a break in the trend-line. We can no longer reliably project the future from recent trends.

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